European Energy Markets:
TTF heading for €100/MWh. Brent aims $120/bbl.
In short: TTF could move to €100/MWh. Brent is heading for $120/bbl.
Bulls continued to push higher last week as the Trending Regime strengthened across key energy markets.
And the bullish picture is consistent across timeframes. Ascending channels on TTF, NBP and German power continue to dominate price action, showing that buyers remain firmly in control.
As long as the Trending Regime persists, trend-following remains the preferred strategy for key gas and power markets. Rather than trying to call the top, watch the 23.6% Fib retracement for the first meaningful sign of a correction—or simply use trailing stoplosses to stay with the trend while protecting profits.
The upside targets are now significant. TTF could test the psychological €100/MWh level, while Brent could push beyond $120/bbl. These are major psychological barriers where stronger profit-taking could start to emerge.
EUA is the exception. The market remains strongly neutral, so directional plays are best kept small or avoided altogether. After such a prolonged uptrend, the risk of a deeper bearish reversal is also building.
We don’t talk about fundamentals much, but…geopolitical risk is still the main driver.
Trump is weighing new strikes on Iran but has ruled them out before the US midterms on 3 November.
Israel votes on Tuesday. Attacks on shipping near Hormuz hit a wartime high this month.
EU storage is at about 75%, the lowest for the time of year on record, so there is little buffer if things escalate.
The only thing that could soften it is a credible diplomatic breakthrough.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
Bullish dominance grew by six percentage points week on week, reaching a high last seen in late March ’26 just before priced declined by around €20/MWh.
But this time around, the fundamental picture, classic chart analysis and our proprietary tools are all in alignment with more upside.