European Energy Markets:
TTF pushing for €110/MWh. Brent at $120/bbl likely.
In short: Bullish trend-following remains the preferred strategy for TTF, NBP, German power and Brent.
Proprietary Clever Markets algos continue to signal strongly trending regimes across key energy markets. Recent signs of bearish candles were all invalidated within the week, reaffirming strong bullish conviction.
And the bullish picture is consistent across timeframes. Ascending channels continue to dominate price action, showing that buyers remain firmly in control.
As long as the trending regimes persist as per our Regime Index, trend-following remains the preferred strategy. Rather than trying to call the top, watch the 23.6% Fib retracement for the first meaningful sign of a correction. Or simply use trailing stoplosses to stay with the trend while protecting profits.
TTF broke past the psychological resistance at €100/MWh and is now aiming for €120/MWh, Brent looks poised to push beyond $120/bbl eventually.
Trump’s language has moved from “weighing” strikes on Iran to planning them. The administration has reportedly told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense round of strikes as soon as November. Strikes after 3 November with European gas storage at about 75% could push TTF well into three figures.
Elsewhere, last week’s EUA uptrend has stalled after prices traded into a high-likelihood bearish reversal zone. Without a shift into a trending regime as per our Regime Index, bullish spec plays are best repositioned for the bearish reversal from here on.
Get the full weekly analysis with actionable TTF insights directly to your inbox for free. Click here.
TTF Sentiment Benchmark
Bullish dominance grew by another 5 percentage points week on week. At 71% this week, it is the second highest reading in at least three years.
Exactly one year earlier, bullish dominance stood at 91%, just one week before price dropped by around €4/MWh to roughly €26/MWh.
The geopolitical environment is very different this time around. Proprietary algos, classic TA and fundamentals are all aligned with more upside overall.
One word of caution: the more one-sided the market is, the more dramatic a downside correction could be.