European Energy Markets:
The deal s off – what’s next for energy prices?
The US – Iran peace deal fell apart over the weekend (shocker) and markets are expected to push significantly higher this week.
Just as the week before, our proprietary algos have already signalled that last week’s downleg on the TTF, NBP and Brent was over.
We were already expecting a move higher this week, with or without the news development. Of course, this will now accelerate the upmove.
So where do we go from here for the TTF, NBP and German power?
Most key markets have found some support at the end of last week before the peace deal fell apart.
But zooming out, our in-house tools also reveal that the bears were not done yet. We might see more extensive corrective moves higher early this week, but eventual downside remains the preferred scenario….for now.
Our methodology is now signalling the following:
Spec Traders: Stay short-biased. This is still a correction, not a reversal yet.
Physical Buyers: If buying is urgent, get volume. If you can sit it out, don’t rush. Wait for deeper capitulation—better value lies ahead.
For the TTF, we expect a rise to €44.38/MWh early this week. If the level holds, The bears will continue lower towards €40/MWh afterwards. A less likely move above €44.38/MWh could lead to €47.02/MWh.
EUAs could push a bit higher this week towards €82/tCO2e before declining past €79.50/tCO2e.
For Brent, a move above $83.83/bbl could lead to $93.82/bbl.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
From being dominantly bearish last week, the market starts out this new week with a slight bullish bias. This is broadly aligned with the bullish corrective move anticipated with our algos and classic TA tools. It’s also aligned with the general mood, now that the US-Iran deal fell through.
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