European Energy Markets:
Bulls grind it out…for now
Gas and power markets may grind higher at the start of this week on weak conviction and fading volume. The big question is: can bulls sustain the move?
TTF Front Month:
A breakout attempt above the double bottom was seen on the daily chart. A second close above €45.10/MWh would confirm the breakout and increase odds of further rallies towards €47.68/MWh where the market may face resistance.
Meanwhile, Clever Markets Trend Indicator continues to show a state where false signals are common and where spec plays are best minimised or avoided.
What our methodology says:
- Speculative traders: Minimise spec plays and use corrective rebounds to reposition for the likely downtrend continuation eventually.
- Physical Buyers: Our models advise patience and waiting for a strategic trough to form before loading up.
German Power: Against earlier expectations, broke above a range and could now head to €95.55/MWh.
EUA: f support holds at €77.47/tCO2e, bulls are likely accumulating for an eventual move higher.
Brent: The market is showing mounting signs of a peak in bearish exhaustion. A rebound above $71.93/bbl would be an initial trigger for the bullish reversal.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
Market participants are indecisive for the second consecutive week. Iran news are now slowly fading into the background and traders are gradually reassessing the new reality of a post-Iran-war world that may still include high volatility.
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