European Energy Markets:
Energy traders indecisive. Downside likely.
Energy traders are still closely watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz but grow increasingly numb to new developments. For example, what looked like a ceasefire deal two weeks ago was quickly undone the same weekend. Now it looks like Iran could take permanent control of the strait.
With every new development, traders are less and less reactive.
Prices on key European energy hubs are set to move sideways at the start of this week. This includes TTF, NBP and German power. Eventual downside after a period of deliberation is expected.
EUAs and Henry Hub, however, are set to move lower sooner; possible right at the start of this week.
Physical buyers may prefer to wait for better prices whereas speculative players scan the charts for shorting opportunities.
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TTF Front Month gas outlook
- Likely swing within €48 – 49.72/MWh early this week.
- Eventual move below that range likely. Subsequent push to €44.78/MWh or even €40.50/MWh in the cards.
- Else, bearish setup undone above €49.72/MWh.
TTF Sentiment Benchmark
The market sentiment is now more evenly mixed than last week’s clear bearish stance. This indecision is reflected in TTF range market at the start of this week.
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