European Energy Markets:
Trading opportunities exist. But it’s not the TTF.
The market sentiment on the TTF front-month contract is less bullish week on week. The bulls and the bears are shifting towards being equally represented.
Makes sense. The market is fatigued and tired. Even the most outrageous Trump post is no longer moving the market much.
Being first in a trade might now be a disadvantage if the rest of the market is sitting on their hands. Don’t have your resources tied up in a market that goes nowhere (or worse, in the “wrong” direction.)
Consolidation continues
Yes, the TTF and other markets saw some modest gains last week. But overall, the market continues to see weak trending regimes all across the board. This means short uplegs and short downlegs with a higher probability of reversing.
For most markets, tools are neutral and unclear even on the hourly chart.
TTF spec traders
Avoid trades in the weak uptrend; use corrective rebounds to initiate or add shorts.
TTF physical traders
The market remains weak and vulnerable. Hold off on buying; wait for clear troughs before accumulating.
The two exceptions
Henry Hub has reversed sharply higher late last week while Brent moved sharply lower. Both were in line with our algo forecasts. Our algos assigned a very high likelihood of those moves playing out.
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TTF Front Month gas outlook
- Slight gain towards €51 possible. But bull trend is already weak. Market expected to top out soon.
- Neutral = €38 – 46
- Bearish = below €38
- Bullish = above €52 towards €60 (less likely)
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
The market edged slightly higher last week in alignment with the overall bullish sentiment. This week, the market is noticeably less bullish. Indecisions sets in.
Want access to the benchmark history? Contact us to get started with Clever Markets.