Energy market outlook for TTF, NBP, Carbon and German power markets. Hosted by Marcello Kolax at Clever Markets

Energy Market Outlook – TTF, NBP, German Power [23 March 2026]

/ by Clever Markets

European Energy Markets:

The bulls have more gas in the tank

Last week I wrote that the TTF, NBP, Brent and other energy markets are all set to move higher but were waiting for the next headline to trigger the move. The escalating war in Iran provided the fuel needed to push higher.

So what’s next?

Our Clever Markets proprietary algos are showing an extremely strong trend for nearly all markets. This includes TTF, NBP, German Power, Brent and JKM. Only Henry Hub is still in a weak market regime.

In practice, this means that the occasional bearish reversal candle on those markets is less likely to lead to a bearish reversal. Staying with the bullish trend may not be the silliest idea.

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TTF Front Month gas outlook

  • The market dipped only marginally lower on low volume last Friday, forming an indecisive spinning top candle as market participants parsed mixed messages from Trump’s consideration of a ceasefire.
  • Nevertheless, the market remains highly sensitive to news and traders may find it safer to stay with the bull trend for now with the tools still broadly supportive.
  • The 61.8% Fib extension at €69.50/MWh (R1) aligns with the upper rectangle border on the hourly timeframe, presenting short-term resistance that, if broken, could lead to a move toward the aggressive 127.2% Fib extension target at €94.04/MWh (R3).
  • In-house algos continue to suggest further upside as the strong bull trend still has room to run under a strongly trending regime.
  • However, if the price falls below the gap border at €56.38/MWh (S1), it would breach key support and likely trigger some long covering toward the previous trough at €45.44/MWh (S2).

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Technical analysis chart for the Dutch TTF natural gas price chart for the front-month contract.

Watch the full weekly analysis video here.

 

TTF Sentiment Benchmark

TTF front-month futures sentiment benchmark for energy commodity traders

The sentiment remains dominantly bullish for the third week in a row as the Iran war spirals out of control. Bullish confidence grew by 5 percentage points week on week to 65%. The bearish percentage is also nearly unchanged from last week.

This bullish stance is in full alignment with the strongly bullish indication from our proprietary algos.

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