European Energy Markets:
Strategy for the week: don’t be first
There’s a strange tension in the energy complex right now. Nobody has clean control.
It’s not panic. It’s not euphoria. It’s that uncomfortable pause where everyone knows a move is coming… but nobody wants to be first. The executive summaries across gas, power, carbon and oil all point to the same thing: major decision levels are being tested, momentum is fading, and conviction is thin.
This is not a “press the accelerator” week. It’s a “don’t be first” week.
- TTF M+1: Strongly neutral around the 200-day EMA, and unless €36.36 breaks, this is a no-man’s-land where spec trades should largely be avoided.
- NBP M+1: Sellers are defending the 200-day EMA hard, and without a decisive break above 83.36p/th, bullish conviction remains fragile.
- TTF S+1: Locked inside the €28.15–33.11/MWh rectangle, firmly neutral, with only small swing opportunities worth touching.
- NBP S+1: Neutral with a bearish tilt under 80p/th, and better suited to mean-reversion than breakout trades.
- German Power Y+1: Still structurally bearish below €82.49/MWh, where strong confluence resistance could easily reassert seller control.
- EUA: Corrective rebound underway, but bears remain in control unless €74.93–76.79/tCO2e clears decisively.
- Brent: Daily chart stuck in a $65–72/bbl range, neutral and prone to profit-taking rather than sustained trend continuation.
We see a lot of setups near key levels but no real conviction. Right now, discipline beats aggression.
The next real move will reward patience, and punish ego.
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TTF Front Month gas outlook
- The market pared gains, settling back below the 200-day EMA last Friday. This reinforces our neutral market stance as prices will continue to test this critical stronghold resistance.
- Although the dominant trend remains bearish, momentum is fading. The MACD shows easing downside pressure, while a stochastic buy confirmation supports a corrective rebound or potential reversal.
- The bearish trend appears to be losing steam. Speculative traders may trim shorts, while physical players may assess buying interest near the 200-day EMA ahead of €34.41/MWh (R1) on the hourly chart. A decisive break above this magnet level would open the path toward €36.36/MWh (R2).
- In-house algorithms remain strongly neutral, advising patience until clearer confirmation emerges.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
We had a few weeks where the poll was split fairly evenly. Now bears clearly dominate. That’s a meaningful shift in conviction.
At the same time, price is still hovering around major support near €31 and stuck around the 200-day EMA. Structure hasn’t fully broken, but positioning has already leaned heavily one way.
That creates tension.
If €31 gives way, sentiment and structure align and the move likely extends quickly. If it holds, a lot of newly confident shorts are vulnerable.
Right now the edge isn’t in predicting. It’s in reacting to the level.
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