European Energy Markets:
Market signals high degree of uncertainty
In short: TTF / NBP may push sideways for some time. High degree of indecision.
TTF and NBP: Both markets have cooled into non-trending regimes. Fatigued participants and noisy price action are flagged by our proprietary algos. This reinforces the risk of false signals and short-lived moves. The sentiment benchmark also reflects this indecision with a near-even distribution of bullish and bearish players.
We expect a drift sideways early this week before declining a bit more. But this is uncertain.
Spec plays are therefore best minimised until stronger directional conviction returns. Best to sit this out.
EUA: The uptrend stalled into sideways consolidation for most of last week. The broader bullish structure remains supported by the daily ascending channel, but the hourly chart needs a clear breakout before the next directional move becomes clearer.
German Power and Brent: Upside risks remain intact as both markets continue to operate within trending regimes.
Henry Hub: Last week’s sharp bullish spike may have been a bull trap, with our in-house algos already flagging a high-likelihood bearish reversal.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
After five weeks of bullish dominance, the sentiment benchmark has now cooled to an even split of bullish and bearish distribution. This reveals a great degree of uncertainty over near-term price moves.