European Energy Markets:
Bulls in control even with shallow correction
In short: TTF / NBP / German power/ Brent struggled correct meaningfully lower. The bulls may resume near the 38.2% Fib.
Recent downside corrections on key European energy markets have struggled to extend convincingly beyond the 23.6% Fib support, showing that the bears still lack conviction.
However, bullish momentum is also starting to tire, with bearish candle setups, a cooling Regime Index and declining volume seen lately.
For now, we expect any correction to remain relatively shallow, potentially toward the 38.2% Fib, while the broader uptrend stays intact.
Our methodology for trending markets that near exhaustion suggests to stay with the trend and protect profits with trailing stoplosses.
The bigger reversal risk comes if the proprietary Clever Markets Regime Index falls back into a non-trending regime. That would signal weakening trend persistence and raise the risk of a sharper bearish correction. Our dashboard clients will be warned immediately should that happen.
EUA is seeing renewed accumulation within its ascending channel, although bullish conviction remains weak. Our methodology says to keep bullish plays small and tactical within the channel.
Henry Hub remains firmly neutral, with little directional conviction.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
The sentiment remains bullish for a fifth consecutive week.
A bullish bias is also maintained from our side. Keep an eye on the bearish trigger and pull it higher with every price increase. If we were to break lower, a corrective down move would be fast and strong.