European Energy Markets:
Tentative bearish pattern but no trigger yet
In short: Bearish patterns shaping up on TTF / NBP / German power but market remains bullish in the absence of a clear bearish trigger.
The market outlook remains largely unchanged from last week when German Power took the lead and shifted into a strong bull trend. TTF and NBP followed shortly thereafter.
All three markets recently reached a high not seen since March ’26. The question is now how much higher we can go.
A typically bearish double top chart pattern is tentatively shaping up on all three hourly charts. This is the first indication of bullish exhaustion.
Also, our proprietary models signal a higher statistical probability of the markets topping out.
We are now in a situation where both, the algos and the bearish patterns, signal impending weakness but we can’t act on it yet without a clear bearish price trigger.
So until TTF moves below €62.54/MWh, NBP below 154.60p/th and German Power below €110.40/MWh, the bulls remain in charge.
Some marginal upside isn’t unthinkable but should not be aggressively chased. Bullish plays can still be maintained, but our methodology prefers our long exposure to be pared the longer this uptrend persists, while keeping a close eye on the bearish reversal setups on both the hourly and daily timeframes.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
The bullish sentiment is dominating for a second consecutive week. Recency bias may be at play with traders remembering the steep rise into late July that we have recently surpassed.
Although a bullish bias is also maintained from our side in the absence of a clear bearish trigger, there is an increasingly higher statistical probability for the market to top out. But we need to wait for that trigger (see our dashboard for details).