European Energy Markets:
Bears are ready to push
Last week we said that “Prices on key European energy hubs are set to move sideways at the start of this week. […] Eventual downside after a period of deliberation is expected.”
That’s exactly what happened.
At the start of this week, TTF and NBP could turn bearish with more substantial losses expected.
German Power has room to decline to €92/MWh and still remain within its rising channel. So it is less clear if the bears could make it past that point.
EUA is a head scratcher and remains noisy hovering around the 200-day EMA. This ongoing indecision was a surprise because just a week earlier we suspected a swift move lower.
Get the full weekly analysis with actionable TTF insights directly to your inbox for free. Click here.
TTF Front Month gas outlook
- Likely drop below €46.40/MWh could turn market bearish towards €40.50/MWh.
- Less likely bounce off €46.40/MWh would maintain a range market.
- Only an even less probable move above €52.60/MWh would put the bulls back in charge.
TTF Sentiment Benchmark
The market sentiment switched from reasonably balanced last week to dominantly bearish this week. This is in line with the expected move below the daily channel. Our proprietary algos are also in alignment with this prospect.
This is the shortened free version available to newsletter subscribers. Contact us to get access to the full dashboard that includes alternative scenarios, multiple timeframes, trigger levels, quant signals, pattern backtests and much more.