European Energy Markets:
Bullish sentiment firming up
In previous weeks, the European energy markets were trapped in indecisive consolidation.
Now however, the markets are gradually firming up. But upside remains likely limited without a sustained shift into a trending regime.
In other words: the bulls really have to give it a good push to turn this short upleg into a lasting trend.
This slowly growing bullish sentiment is also reflected in the sentiment benchmark. The bullish share has grown by 7 percentage points week on week to 52%.
On the TTF, upside may be increasingly limited to €53.82/MWh if the market remains in a non-trending regime per in-house algos.
German power may still continue higher eventually as long as prices remain above the trough confluence at €87.06/MWh.
Unless Brent prices are able to overcome the resistance at $119.76/bbl, the broader market stance remains stuck in consolidation.
TTF Spec traders
Go with the trend but watch out for bearish setups near high-likelihood reversal zones.
Physical traders
Slow down on buying; more tactical trough buying opportunities can still be expected with the markets stuck in non-trending regimes.
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TTF Front Month gas outlook
- Move above €51.59 could easily lead to €54.50
- Further move above it remains unlikely if our in-house algos remain neutral.
- Bullish continuation would lead to €58.50
TTF Sentiment Benchmark
Shift towards bullishness continues. Now another 7 percentage points were added to the bearish stance. This is in alignment with the gains our algos favour at the start of this week.
It is unclear if this will lead to a more sustained uptrend.
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