Energy market outlook for TTF, NBP, Carbon and German power markets. Hosted by Marcello Kolax at Clever Markets

Energy Market Outlook – TTF, NBP, German Power [30 March 2026]

/ by Clever Markets

European Energy Markets:

TACO fatigue

European energy markets traded indecisively within a narrow range at the end of last week. There are three key reasons for this:

  1. Growing uncertainty over the duration of the war in Iran means that traders may be waiting for more certainty before pushing into a new direction.
  2. There simply might be nothing left to buy with everyone holding on to their contracts, thinking that upside will continue.
  3. It is also contract rolling season which typically leads to a decline in trading volume.

Hesitation was visible on the Dutch TTF, British NBP, German power market and even European carbon emissions.

When talking to traders, I noticed that many are jaded with the constant back and forth. Trump on Iran right now reads less like foreign policy and more like the ramblings of a senile man: victory declared, we are actually not at war, talks with Iran are on, talks are off, Hormuz is open, Hormuz was never closed, Iran is mining the strait, boots on the ground….

Traders don’t know anymore what news to react to. I have been sensing TACO fatigue and I wonder what news development would be big enough to make price move again.

So here’s my actionable tip for energy traders: pay close attention what moves the market, no matter how small the news event. If the bulls move up on bullish news, that’s your sign. If the bulls don’t move up on bullish news then the market is truly exhausted.

I released a ​free masterclass​ on combining fundamentals with technicals some time ago. This is more relevant than ever now.

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TTF Front Month gas outlook

  • The broader structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, leaving the market vulnerable to sudden upside spikes on negative news.
  • The market has finally cooled off to a nontrending regime state per in-house algos. With just a weak bull trend state, this is an area prone to losses for spec plays. Therefore, caution is warranted against aggressive long positioning given elevated volatility and rising correction risks.
  • On the hourly chart, prices are consolidating within a rectangle, indicating a likely sideways range between €45.44/MWh (S1) and €69.50/MWh (R1). Within this range, trading can still be highly volatile and uncertain.
  • A break above €69.50/MWh (R1) would likely open the path toward €83.65/MWh (R2), signalling strong trend continuation.

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Technical analysis chart for the Dutch TTF natural gas price chart for the front-month contract.

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TTF Sentiment Benchmark

TTF front-month futures sentiment benchmark for energy commodity traders

The sentiment benchmark remains bullish for the fourth week in a row with the war in Iran on everyone’s mind. Although the market started to slow down at the end of last week, the sentiment shows that the bulls are still willing to push onwards on any new developments.

But our in-house algos are showing a significant cooling of last week’s trend. It would require a very strong piece of bullish news to move the market higher this week.

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