European Energy Markets:
TTF and NBP bulls waiting for the next headline
The Dutch TTF natural gas hub as well as the British NBP have struggled to move higher last week but there is a chance that upside will continue soon. Even without any new developments in the Strait of Hormuz, energy commodity prices are primed to move higher.
Any new trigger events in the US / Iran war might provide the fuel that is needed to push prices higher.
Until that happens, TTF and NBP front-month and front-season products are caught in their clearly defined consolidation ranges. Within those ranges, trading opportunities are limited to smaller intra-day swings that are best traded on the 15-minute and hourly timeframes.
The bulls are in waiting mode. This is also reflected in the weak-to-moderate bullish stance as shown with the Clever Markets in-house algos.
European carbon emission certificates remain range-bound. Eventual downside resolution after a strong open on Monday remains the most likely scenario.
German power markets are also ready to push lower, resolving the increasingly tighter intra-day range.
Brent could easily make it to $113/bbl and then $120/bbl again, according to our algos.
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TTF Front Month gas outlook
- The dominant trend remains bullish, but is currently undergoing a pullback. Our algos indicate the bull trend continues to stay weak-to-moderate.
- The strongly trending regime suggests that further upside risk remains. Strong dip buyers are more likely to reemerge at the 61.8% Fib retracement at €45.44/MWh.
- A recovery above €55.75/MWh would bolster bullish confidence towards €69.50/MWh.
- However, if price breaks below the 61.8% Fib retracement at €45.44/MWh, this would signal a shift from a corrective pullback to a full-on reversal.
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TTF Sentiment Benchmark
The sentiment remains nearly unchanged week on week. The bulls continue to dominate the TTF sentiment benchmark with nearly 60% of the vote. The bearish percentage is also nearly unchanged from last week.
This bullish stance is somewhat in alignment with the weak-to-moderate bullish indication from our proprietary algos.
The uptrend is moderately weak as long as price remains within the congestion zone.
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