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Thread: Forecasting

  1. Default Forecasting

    forecast till the end of 2006, for ALCASTON MINING

    1)the yellow interval is the most probable interval for the mean of time;
    2)the first pink interval (down), is the most probable interval for THE (individual) SUPPORT, within you should buy;
    3) the second pink interval (up), is the most probable interval for THE (individual) RESISTENCE, within you should sell.

  2. Default

  3. Default

    I was right - with my SHORT TERM (STRICTLY on SMAC and not from the sight of TA speaking) FORECAST - again.

    It`s going about this one, made for AMG.AX.

    Today the 13 of october 2006 - so, after only a month - the forecasted evolution was reaching the 0,0980 value level, or what is also calling that THE FORECASTED RESISTENCE WAS BROKEN.

    Are you further mistrustful that i have THE HOLY GRAIL with me, or the EYE OF CHORUS every time????

  4. Default

    It` s calling THE HOLY KNOWLEDGE an NOT THE PROFANE SCIENCE you are learning at very expensive institutions!

    The FORECASTING MODEL FOR RANDOM EVOLUTIONS - by science people denied - IS EXISTING SINCE 500 YEARS AT LEAST, maybe earlier as the da Vinci`s time!

    This MODEL OF FORECASTING was also confirmed to us, first by K.F. Gauss and later by R.A Fisher.

  5. Default

    Thanks for your post/s above. I think hershy's post indicates that this topic is perhaps treading on dangerous ground but is still academically interesting.

    The notion of the analysis of samples of population data is one that I am somewhat familiar with (from a science perspective). The extension of that idea using statistics to forecast future series of data based on previous series of data is one that I have had no use for previously, but stoian has clearly indicated a useful domain for its application.

    I have attached the 4th order polynomial chart generated in excel (based on the last year's share price for AMG) which "forecasts" the AMG share price 90 days into the future. I have not mastered the approach displayed in your charts: placing of pink bands on the chart to suggest regions of buy & sell. However the formula used and the reported R2 value is displayed on the chart .



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