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  1. Default A failed rally... - The McMillan Portfolio Newsletter

    A failed rally...

    After a gap down open, the bulls decided to try to take the NASDAQ-100 to new highs but failed at the critical instant...


    Sell shares of DIA to close the long position at the open.

    If the price of DIA, QQQQ, and SPY is higher at the close than the open, Sell share of all three short to open short positions.

    Daily Trend Indications:

  2. Default

    The major index ETFs opened lower and immediately began to move higher reaching their zeniths shortly before 11:30am EDT. From there, the indexes hung up in the general vicinity through the lunch hour and early afternoon. At 2:30pm, the bears began their assault and drove the major indexes to their lows by 3:45pm. The major indexes recovered in the final fifteen minutes to close with losses, although the NASDAQ-100 loss was diminimus. The Russell-2000 (IWM 64.88 -0.96) lost about 1.5% while the Semiconductor Index (SOX 332.83 +2.38 ) actually posted a gain of about two thirds of one percent. The Bank Index (KBE 22.63 -0.41) lost two percent while the Regional Bank Index (KRE 22.04 -0.15) only posted a fractional loss. The 20+ Yr Bonds (TLT 104.91 +0.30) posted a fractional gain and now sits above all moving averages we regularly report on as volume dropped back to average. NYSE volume was average with 942B shares traded. NASDAQ volume was average with 1.912B shares traded.

  3. Default

    The first two reports were released an hour before the open while the latter two reports were released a half hour into the session.

    Lower than expected PMI readings in Europe (mainly Germany) caused futures to mimic European bourses. The lower open was immediately met by buyers but the bulls were stymied as the NASADQ-100 approached its recent (Tuesday) intraday high. It failed a tiny fraction short of that intraday high mark and that rejection (from a technical standpoint) was considered a successful test and the bears took the Dow and S&P-500 back down to the lower open levels. The NASDAQ-100 was able to close nearly unchanged which was one percent below its intraday high water mark.

    Nine out of ten economic sectors in the S&P-500 moved lower led by Financials (-2.0%). Tech was unchanged.

    Implied volatility for the S&P-500 (VIX 23.87 +1.36) rose six percent and implied volatility for the NASDAQ-100 (VXN 24.26 +0.63) rose most of three percent. The VIX sits above its 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) and VXN is on its 200-DMA.

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    The yield for the 10-year note rose four basis points to close at 2.59. The price of the near term futures contract for a barrel of crude oil rose forty-seven cents to close at $75.18.

    Market internals were negative with decliners leading advancers 7:3 on the NYSE and by 2:1 on the NASDAQ. Down volume led up volume 3:1 on the NYSE and by 3:2 on the NASDAQ. The index put/call ratio rose 0.23 to close at 1.52. The equity put/call ratio fell 0.08 to close at 0.64.



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