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  1. Default TRM (Trade Risk Management)

    Has anyone subscribed to this service?I believe they have a Forex site as well.

    Their predictions are based,they say,on Hurst Cycles.

    I can only find obscure articles about Hurst.Anyone know anything about him?

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    Hurst is quite famous for writing a book. It's called The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, by J M Hurst. It's available from Global Investor, etc.

    I have the book, and it's quite mathematical but it does give you all the details for working out cycles. From memory, it's not very expensive, so perhaps you may wish to read the book before you subscribe to the service. It was first published in 1970, so is quite an old-fashioned book, if you know what I mean.

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    This is Hurst masterful work...

    http://www.traderspress.org/detail.asp?product_id=1400

    Its hard core.. not for the bed time reading

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    I subscribed to & papertraded TRM for 3 months. As with most technical analysis the historic charts seem to work very well, but when using the system in realtime flaws become apparent. In particular their charts are "adaptive", so that for one or two days their "signal line" (on the medium term sigma band charts, or shorter term signal band charts) may show an entry signal, but after factoring in the next day or two`s data that signal can often disappear. Also, when prices cross over the +/- 2 or 3 sigma band lines (which are standard deviations from a long term trend line) they can often stay there for a very long time or continue in their prior trend, rather than reversing within days as implied by TRM (their website confidently states a 98% or 99% probability of a reversal at these lines, which may be mathematically correct, but it doesn`t mean the reversal will occur right away). The "cycle decomposition charts" & "curvilinear envelopes" are interesting, supposedly for gauging the current trend, but in practice of limited use, due again to the adaptive nature of the indicators. I did observe the sigma bands working very well on a few occasions, but in my experience the signals given by the system weren`t reliable enough for me to use them as a stand-alone trading system, and their monthly fees were too high to keep subscribing as a secondary system to help confirm other trade signals. TRM allow you to try out their system for only $2.95 for 14 days, so I suggest you give it a try. If their testimonials are to be believed many of their subscribers love the system. The guru who developed the system from Hurst`s work, James Maggio, is very helpful if you have any questions.

  5. #5
    Clyderof Guest

    Default

    Tradertim,you bring up some interesting points,you say when prices get to the 2nd or 3rd band it can take a long time before they reverse.How long is a"long time"?If it is,say,a month or so then it would be suitable for doing credit spreads,particularly if the prices do indeed reverse 98% of the time.Anyway I have browsed their site and find it a bit curious that everyone who has sent a testimonial have also given their email address.Interesting!!!

 

 

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