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  1. Default Looming crisis in China/S.E. Asia

    Remember where and when you heard this, I have not seen it in the news yet and my contact is very reliable and an expert in the field:

    A newly discovered virus is infecting the swine herds of China and South East Asia. 1,000,000 adult pigs dead in china last month and approximately 4000 a day in Viet Nam. USDA has a team on the ground there to help with the quarantine and control.
    My contact says there is some unrest among the local population due to increasing pork prices and the army presence has been increased to prevent any strikes or protests.

    At this point I haven't keyed in on a strategy to take advantage of this info, but I am working on it.
    Also worth noting is the recent new outbreak of Hoof and mouth in the U.K. I don't know if these two things dovetail in any way or if a play that encompasses both is out there.

    I am thinking about the following plays:
    Companies that export pork products to China
    Veterinary Pharma
    Quarantine and control companies (anything from animal pens to disinfectants)

    Any other ideas would be welcome and I'll post any new info I get as I get it.

  2. Default

    To add to aiki's list of things to watch:

    Cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
    TSN - Tyson Foods
    SFD - Smithfield Foods (the world's largest pork producer and processor)
    ADM - Archer Daniels Midland's (soy-based livestock feed)
    HAIN - Hain Celestial (vegetarian/organic food company, negative news on meat could increase demand)
    GXY - Galaxy Nutritional Foods ( " ")
    HRL - Hormel Foods (Pork processor)
    TTN - Titan (Food irradiation)

  3. Default

    Don't know how I missed that Forbes article. I am noticing the numbers though, 75% price increase on 90k dead. That sounds like a big spike on small decline in numbers. I'll bet the true numbers come out and we see a real price spike.
    The Chinese love to suppress bad news, or put a better face on things, especially with the olympics and worlds fair upcoming.

  4. Default

    kinda ot, but i recently saw a mini interview with a tsn executive. turns out chickens are pretty global- he discussed how the breasts are sold in north america, with wings being seasonal with football. most wings to africa. chicken legs to russia. and feet and other parts to china. if pork gets too expensive, surely substitutions will occur.

  5. Default

    Maybe time to look at Tyson or Hormel.

 

 

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